Friday Edition

04.10.09

GLOBAL

IEA on Friday cut its 2009 world oil demand forecast by 1 million barrels a day and stated the global economic recession could force further reductions. IEA expects global oil demand this year to slump to 83.4 million barrels a day, about 3% below 2008 levels.

Global soybean prices are likely to rise further later this year, fuelled by Chinese demand. Cargill Investments (China) stated that soybean prices will increase as China's edible oil demand is expected to grow by 3%-4% this year.

NORTH AMERICA

USDA is increasing its soybean export forecast for 2008-09 to a record-high 1.21 billion bushels, up from the March prediction of 1.185 billion due to strong year-to-date shipments and outstanding sales as well as reduced competition from South America.

USDA projected US soybean ending stocks could be at their lowest at the end of the current marketing year since 2003-04, due to strong exports and a reduced South American crop offsetting weaker domestic demand.

A contract to produce cellulosic jet fuel has been awarded to Logos Technologies by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). The initial $19.6 million phase will last about 18 months, with expectations of 36 months and a team of 21 organizations to complete the project.

US ethanol RINs have dropped on lower expectations that the government will allow increased levels to be blended into gasoline this year. 2009 RINs are at $0.085, down 30% since March 27, and 2008 RINs are pegged at $0.04, down about 47%.

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina is expected to produce 39 million mt of soybeans and export 10.1 million mt in 2008-09, according to USDA. Last month USDA forecast Argentina would produce 43 million mt and export 11.7 million.

EUROPE

Invensys Process Systems has joined Optfuel, the European consortium researching second-generation biofuels. The Optfuel project will establish the technical basis for the large-scale production of biomass-to-liquid products from wood chips.

ASIA / PACIFIC


CPO will likely trade around $664/mt by the end of the year if Saudi Arabia can support oil prices at $55 per barrel. However, CPO prices could fall to $415/mt if Saudi Arabia fails to stop crude oil prices from falling to $35 per barrel, according to LMC International Ltd.

China may extend restrictions on foreign investment in the oilseed processing sector to other crops to bolster control over its own food security, a government planning official said Friday. China has been seeking to increase regulations on overseas-owned soybean processors due to overcapacity in the local market.

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