Wednesday Edition

08.06.09

Global

SOYBEANS RISE ON EXPECTED DEMAND INCREASE
Soybeans rose for a fifth session Wednesday on speculation that demand will improve as users seek a cheaper alternative to palm oil, which hit a six-week high in Malaysia. Palm oil futures jumped 11% in the past week, the longest rally since February, as higher energy prices boosted its appeal as a source of biofuels, Bloomberg reports.



North America

BIODIESEL MANDATE BEGINS IN OREGON
Oregon’s biodiesel mandate will commence today in some northwest counties, with the rest of the state following suit on October 1. The mandate requires a 2% biodiesel blend and is expected to create 10-million gallons per year of biodiesel demand.


ADM REPORTS 83% EARNINGS DROP
ADM reported fourth quarter financials this week, posting a 83% drop in earnings due to weak demand in many divisions including ethanol. ADM's net earnings dropped to $64 million, as compared to $372 million, from the same period last year, OPIS reports.


South America

BRAZILIAN SOY CROP FORECAST ABOVE LAST YEAR
Brazilian agricultural consultancy Celeres has forecast Brazil's 2009-10 soybean crop at 64.7 million mt, 11.3% above the 2008-09 crop due to the price ratio between soy and corn leading farmers to plant more soy.

PETROBRAS INVESTS MORE IN ENERGY RESEARCH
Petrobras is planning to invest over $530-million in universities and research institutes between 2009 and 2011 in hopes to make Brazil a world leader in energy technology. About 250 laboratories are included in the company’s plan.

ARGENTINE CONGRESS MAY DECLARE FARMING EMERGENCY
On Wednesday, the Lower House of Congress is expected to debate a bill to declare a nationwide farming emergency, and secure a $30- $40 million rescue package for the sector.

Asia / Pacific

CPO PRODUCTION EXPECTED LOWER ON MONTH
In Indonesia, palm oil production for July is pegged at between 2.03 million and 2.13 million tons lower than traders' estimates of around 2.31 million tons. "Output may reach 10%-10.5% of annual production" of about 20 million tons, Derom Bangun, vice chairman of Indonesian Palm Oil Board, said Wednesday.

MALAYSIAN CPO RISES FOLLOWING BRENT CRUDE OIL
Crude palm oil futures in Malaysia extended gains Wednesday to $667/mt as investors covered short positions, while tight palm oil supply was positive for prices, Dow Jones reports. CPO prices are likely to track crude oil's price trends after analyst James Fry of LMC International said CPO prices could rise to $800/mt by the end of the year with Brent crude at $70 a barrel.

THAI GOVERNMENT FIXES DIESEL PRICES
Diesel prices will be prohibited from rising over 88-cents/litre, according to Thailand's Finance Minister, stating that the state Oil Fund will intervene in the market by reducing levies to the Oil Fund to ease the impact on consumers from rising oil prices. Currently, diesel in Bangkok costs 82-cents and B5 biodiesel is 74-cents/litre.

Market Views

SOY BIODIESEL SUPPORTERS SEEK TO EDUCATE EPA ON RFS-2 REQUIREMENTS
The United Soybean Board along with the National Biodiesel Board issued statements this week regarding ‘false’ assumptions made in the proposed RFS-2. The organizations plan to continue meeting with EPA to explain why vegetable oils should not be excluded as raw material for biodiesel within the proposal.


The groups claim that soybeans are not given a GHG credit for fixing nitrogen in soil, biodiesel production did not receive a GHG credit for glycerin as a valuable co-product, and that 80% of soy protein meal as a significant portion of the market value for the entire crop remained unaccounted for as well as the steep increases in soybean yield that can be expected in coming years.


Considering these arguments, soy-based biodiesel should have well over the 50% GHG reduction as is required by the rule, not 22% as is stated currently.

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